New Census Health Insurance Data Likely to Show Declines in Health Coverage throughout Washington State

Tomorrow, the U.S. Census Bureau will release national and state health insurance data for 2007-2008. The data will provide a preliminary glimpse of the impact that the current recession has had on families in Washington and throughout the nation. The data will not however, capture the full impact of the current economic crisis which deepened dramatically in 2009.

The new Census data is expected to show significant increases in the share of the population that is uninsured since the early 2000’s to 2007-2008. The loss of employer-sponsored health insurance is likely to be the dominant driver behind this trend. During the current recession, the economy sunk rapidly in 2009 and many more people lost their jobs and their health insurance. So while tomorrow’s release will signal trouble, next year’s 2008-2009 health coverage data will undoubtedly be far worse.

For example, as the graph below shows here in Washington the unemployment rate jumped from an average of 5.3 percent in 2008 to 9.1 percent by July 2009. Since the start of 2009, over 64,000 jobs have been lost in the state. As a result, next year’s 2008-2009 data will show a large drop in the number of Washingtonians enrolled in employer-sponsored health coverage.

Stay tuned to schmudget tomorrow when the Budget & Policy Center in conjunction with Washington Kids Count will post an analysis of health coverage trends in Washington using the new Census data. Our analysis will highlight changes in the share of the population without health insurance over time and will detail changes in employer-sponsored coverage and public coverage in Washington State.

Editor’s note: Tomorrow’s release will also include updated data on poverty and median income. To obtain state-level estimates of these measures, however, the Census Bureau recommends using data from a different survey, the American Community Survey (ACS). The latest ACS data for 2008 will be released on September 22, 2009. That morning, the Budget & Policy Center and Washington Kids Count will post analysis of the ACS data on poverty, median income, and health coverage in Washington State.

Washington TANF Caseload Increases Match State Forecasts

Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) caseloads have risen sharply in Washington over the last year. Since April 2008, total TANF caseloads in the state went up by 9,000. The increase to over 60,000 cases in April this year can be attributed both to rising numbers of people entering the program and decreasing numbers of people exiting.

Back in November, the Caseload Forecast Council predicted that TANF caseloads would remain under 60,000 through 2011. In March, the Council recalibrated its forecasting to include more recent economic trends and projections such as rising unemployment.

As the graph below depicts, the new forecasting seems to be working. In March, the Council predicted TANF caseloads would be 61,550 in April and the total caseloads were actually 60,809. Currently, the state predicts that TANF caseloads will rise by 13 percent this year and 11 percent in 2010. Caseloads are projected to decrease by less than one percent in 2011.


Washington is applying for the maximum allotment from TANF contingency funds, including funds from the federal stimulus bill to support increasing caseloads and other TANF efforts at the state level. The total amount for fiscal years 2009 and 2010 will be $190 million. All the funds received will be used to backfill rising caseload costs and help preserve basic services.

Note: TANF caseloads are affected by seasonal employment patterns. They tend to rise during the fall and winter and fall during spring and summer.

Budget Cuts Hurt Working Families

With unemployment expected to rise to record levels, opportunities to achieve economic security through employment are diminishing. Families who are struggling during these difficult times need state investments in health, education, and economic security more than ever. The proposed budget cuts in the Governor's and Legislature's budgets will come as a double-hit to working families who may no longer have market-based resources to rely on. Two examples are health care and education:

• Health Care - Job loss is often accompanied by loss of health insurance. And during recessions, employers may eliminate coverage in order to save costs. Losing health insurance could have a devastating impact on the health and finances of working families. The proposed state budget cuts would remove access to affordable health insurance for many Washingtonians. For example, Basic Health, a state-funded health insurance program that provides coverage to lower income families is facing cuts that would eliminate coverage for 40,000 people.

• Education -Rising unemployment often increases the demand for workforce training and higher education. These programs have long term benefits for workers and the economy. Even one year of higher education can increase an individual’s lifetime salary and help workers meet the needs of employers when the economy recovers. But the proposed deep cuts to funding for community colleges and public universities will reverse this trend by reducing access to higher education for students and workers in the state.
  

Maintaining Our Priorities
Deep budget cuts are not the only solution to our state's fiscal problems. Washington lawmakers should consider raising revenue to avoid dismantling our important public infrastructures and use the Working Families Tax Rebate to offset the disproportionate impact a regressive tax increase would have on lower income families.