Special Series: The Impact of I-1033 on Yakima County

I-1033 would do great harm to basic public services in Yakima County. An analysis of historical revenue data from the Yakima County Auditor’s Office shows I-1033 would have cost the county nearly $45 million, had it been in place from 1996-2008. In particular, investments in public safety and criminal justice would likely have been significantly reduced, as 80 percent of the current operating budget in the county is dedicated to these essential services.

The graph below shows how I-1033 would have lead to progressively higher revenue losses each year from 1996 to 2008 in Yakima County. In 2008 alone, the county would have lost $5.9 million, or about 11 percent of the general fund budget.



To put this into context, $5.9 million in the 2008 Yakima County general fund budget would have been equivalent to:

• Two-thirds of expenditures on the Sheriff’s Office ($8.3 million);


• Eighty-four percent of the combined budgets for the District Court, the Superior Court, and the county clerk ($7.0 million);


• More than the combined general fund expenditures on indigent defense, juvenile justice, and the Washington State University extension program ($5.0 million).

As a result of the ongoing national recession, revenue collections among local governments in Washington have fallen dramatically in the past year. In Yakima County, officials had to draw down reserve funds and eliminate more than 30 vacant positions in order to keep the 2009 budget in balance.

Revenue collections continue to decline in Yakima County, however. The county also faces rising costs and increased demand for services. For example, the county jail has experienced a recent influx of new inmates which drives up the cost of providing corrections services. Together, lower revenues and increased costs are resulting in a $3.3 million deficit going into the 2010 budget cycle in Yakima County. To fill this gap, county officials may have to lay off as many as 60 county government employees.*

It is important to note that 2009 would become the basis for all future budgets in Yakima County under I-1033. As a result, all of the cuts enacted this year and in 2010 will be locked into place, making it impossible to restore services even after the economy recovers.

Editor’s Note on Methodology: There has been much debate about which revenue sources would be subject to the population-growth-plus-inflation cap under I-1033. For this analysis, we assumed that general fund revenue -- including general fund tax revenues, revenues from permits and licenses, and revenues derived from charges for government services -- would have been subject to the I-1033 limit. It is important to note that expanding the scope of revenues subject to the I-1033 limit would substantially increase the estimates of annual revenue losses as well as expand the scope of county services negatively impacted under the initiative.

*David Lester, “Budget gap may force Yakima County to make 60 layoffs,” Yakima Herald-Republic, October 10, 2009.

Special Series: The Impact of I-1033 on Clark County

This year, Clark County officials have struggled to maintain basic county services amidst the deepest national recession since the 1930s. If I-1033 is enacted, spending on law and justice, public safety, and other essential county services would be frozen at 2009 levels. And in future years, Clark County would face rising revenue shortfalls, forcing deep cuts in these services.

Clark County would have lost more than $115 million had I-1033 been in place from 1995-2008, based on an analysis of historical general fund revenue data from the Clark County Office of Budget and Information Services. As the graph below illustrates, during the 2007-08 biennium the county would have lost about $30.3 million (11 percent of the general fund budget).



In the 2007-08 Clark County general fund budget, $30.3 million would have been equivalent to:

• Nearly 60 percent of expenditures on the Sheriff’s Office ($51.5 million);


• Eighty-seven percent of the budget for the county jail ($34.7 million);


• More than the combined expenditures on parks and public works ($7.0 million), community corrections programs ($11.6 million), and indigent defense services ($9.6 million).

The national recession has caused severe budget deficits, impacting local governments throughout Washington. During the current crisis, Clark County officials have struggled to keep the county budget in balance without reducing essential services or laying-off scores of county government employees. So far, this has been accomplished through the use of across-the-board budget cuts and one-time measures -- such as extending the lives of county patrol cars and diverting revenues from the county road fund.

Yet even with these actions, Clark County continues to face a projected $12.7 million budget deficit for the remainder of the 2009-10 biennium.* With few remaining options, county officials may be forced to completely eliminate services in order to fill the current gap. Under I-1033, the 2009-10 budget would form the basis for all future budgets in Clark County and it would be virtually impossible to restore services even after the economy recovers.

Editor’s Note on Methodology: There has been much debate about which revenue sources would be subject to the population-growth-plus-inflation cap under I-1033. For this analysis, we assumed that general fund revenue -- including general fund tax revenues, revenues from permits and licenses, and revenues derived from charges for government services -- would have been subject to the I-1033 limit. It is important to note that expanding the scope of revenues subject to the I-1033 limit would substantially increase the estimates of annual revenue losses as well as expand the scope of county services negatively impacted under the initiative.

* Clark County Office of Budget, General Fund 2009-10 Projections, October, 2009.

Special Series: The Impact of I-1033 on Spokane County

Under I-1033, Spokane County would face erosion in basic public services. An analysis of historical revenue data from the Spokane County Auditor’s Office shows the initiative would have cost the county about $105 million in general fund revenues, had it been in effect from 1996 to 2008.

The graph below illustrates the annual impact. Under the initiative, Spokane County would have lost $16.6 million in 2008 alone.



To put that in perspective, in Spokane County $16.6 million was more than the combined general fund expenditures on the District Court ($5.8 million), the Superior Court ($6.6 million), and the county medical examiner ($1.4 million) in 2008. In relation to other services, $16.6 million was equivalent to half of the general fund expenditures for the Sheriff’s Office ($33.2 million), 90 percent of the combined budgets of the county prosecutor and public defender ($18.8 million), and 85 percent of all general fund spending on county jails ($19.6 million).

Under I-1033, 2009 would form the base year for future county budgets in Washington. However, the current recession has caused serious revenue shortfalls in Spokane County and throughout Washington. To balance the 2009 budget, Spokane County officials have already used about $3.4 million in budget reserves, enacted another $3 million in spending cuts, and instituted a hiring freeze that eliminated 56 county government positions. But despite these actions, the county currently faces a projected $12.5 million budget shortfall in 2010.* If enacted, I-1033 would make it impossible for Spokane County to restore services to pre-recession levels.

Editor’s Note on Methodology: There has been much debate about which revenue sources would be subject to the population-growth-plus-inflation cap under I-1033. For this analysis, we assumed that general fund revenue -- including general fund tax revenues, revenues from permits and licenses, and revenues derived from charges for government services -- would have been subject to the I-1033 limit. It is important to note that expanding the scope of revenues subject to the I-1033 limit would substantially increase the estimates of annual revenue losses as well as expand the scope of county services negatively impacted under the initiative.

* Jim Camden, "Budget woes may force Holmberg's closer," The Spokesman-Review, August 4, 2009.

Special Series: The Impact of I-1033 on Snohomish County

I-1033 would be a disaster for Snohomish County, requiring deep cuts in essential public services. If it had been put in place in 1996, the initiative would have led to severe revenue shortages in each subsequent year. In total, Snohomish County would have lost about $245 million in general fund revenues between 1996 and 2008 under the initiative (see graph below).




In 2008 alone, Snohomish County would have lost about $33.5 million -- 16 percent of the general fund budget. By way of illustration, $33.5 million in the Snohomish County general fund budget would have been equivalent to:

• Seventy-three percent of the general fund spending for the Sheriff’s Office ($46.1 million);


• More than the combined general fund budgets for the District Court and the Superior Court ($31.6 million);


• Ninety-one percent of spending on the Department of Corrections ($37 million);


• Three times the general fund budget for the Parks and Recreation Department ($10 million);


• Twice the amount of general fund spending on the Prosecuting Attorney ($15.2 million).

In total, 70 percent of the general fund budget in Snohomish County was devoted funding for the law and justice services in 2008. Deep cuts in these services and others would have been unavoidable under I-1033.

More troubling, I-1033 would be implemented during the deepest recession of the post-World War II era. Under the initiative, 2009 would become the base for all future budgets in Snohomish County. The current recession has already taken a heavy toll on the current county budget. Last year, in crafting the 2009 budget, Snohomish County lawmakers faced a budget deficit totaling $21 million. To fill this gap, Snohomish County lawmakers implemented a hiring freeze and eliminated dozens of vacant county government positions.

In early 2009 the economy worsened, forcing the county to close an additional $6.7 million shortfall in April. To fill this gap, the county extended the hiring freeze and instituted a series of 11 unpaid furlough days, amounting to a four percent pay cut for affected county government workers. Yet, the budget situation in Snohomish County remains grim. To balance the next year’s 2010 budget, Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon recently proposed increasing the number of furlough days to as many as 15, and decreasing pay for jail workers and Sheriff’s deputies.

Editor’s Note on Methodology: There has been much debate about which revenue sources would be subject to the population-growth-plus-inflation cap under I-1033. For this analysis, we assumed that general fund revenue -- including general fund tax revenues, revenues from permits and licenses, and revenues derived from charges for government services -- would have been subject to the I-1033 limit. It is important to note that expanding the scope of revenues subject to the I-1033 limit would substantially increase the estimates of annual revenue losses as well as expand the scope of county services negatively impacted under the initiative.

Special Series: The Impact of I-1033 on Counties

Washington State’s 39 counties play key roles in our public infrastructure, including public safety, public health, transportation, parks, and libraries. The recession has hit county budgets hard and many are facing deep budget cuts.

If Initiative 1033 were to pass, it would have a disastrous impact on county governments and on the services they provide, at a time when they can least afford it. According to the Office of Financial Management, counties stand to lose a total of $694 million by 2015, as shown in the graph below.



Tomorrow, schmudget will begin a series outlining the potential impacts of I-1033 on individual counties. We'll begin tomorrow with Snohomish County.