Nearly 1 in 6 Washington Workers Were Underemployed in First Half of 2009

In the first half of 2009, 16.2 percent of Washington’s potential workforce was underemployed each month on average. Two years earlier, before the recession, the underemployment rate was 9.4 percent.

The underemployed includes workers who:

• Are unsuccessfully looking for work (the unemployed),


• Are marginally attached to the labor market, such as workers who have given up looking for work because they have become discouraged,


• Are working part-time for economic reasons, such as an inability to find fulltime work.

New Census Health Insurance Data Likely to Show Declines in Health Coverage throughout Washington State

Tomorrow, the U.S. Census Bureau will release national and state health insurance data for 2007-2008. The data will provide a preliminary glimpse of the impact that the current recession has had on families in Washington and throughout the nation. The data will not however, capture the full impact of the current economic crisis which deepened dramatically in 2009.

The new Census data is expected to show significant increases in the share of the population that is uninsured since the early 2000’s to 2007-2008. The loss of employer-sponsored health insurance is likely to be the dominant driver behind this trend. During the current recession, the economy sunk rapidly in 2009 and many more people lost their jobs and their health insurance. So while tomorrow’s release will signal trouble, next year’s 2008-2009 health coverage data will undoubtedly be far worse.

For example, as the graph below shows here in Washington the unemployment rate jumped from an average of 5.3 percent in 2008 to 9.1 percent by July 2009. Since the start of 2009, over 64,000 jobs have been lost in the state. As a result, next year’s 2008-2009 data will show a large drop in the number of Washingtonians enrolled in employer-sponsored health coverage.

Stay tuned to schmudget tomorrow when the Budget & Policy Center in conjunction with Washington Kids Count will post an analysis of health coverage trends in Washington using the new Census data. Our analysis will highlight changes in the share of the population without health insurance over time and will detail changes in employer-sponsored coverage and public coverage in Washington State.

Editor’s note: Tomorrow’s release will also include updated data on poverty and median income. To obtain state-level estimates of these measures, however, the Census Bureau recommends using data from a different survey, the American Community Survey (ACS). The latest ACS data for 2008 will be released on September 22, 2009. That morning, the Budget & Policy Center and Washington Kids Count will post analysis of the ACS data on poverty, median income, and health coverage in Washington State.

Increased TANF Caseloads Across the Country Linked to Rising Unemployment

Welfare caseloads are on the rise across the country, as they have been here in Washington State. According to a new survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal and the National Conference of State Legislatures, 23 of the 30 largest states in the nation saw caseloads increase over the past year for Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).

One explanation for the increase in TANF caseloads is the rising unemployment rate. As people’s unemployment benefits run out and the labor market remains constricted, some are turning to welfare as a stopgap until the economy improves.

As the WSJ map below shows, the biggest increases in TANF caseloads are in states with some of the worst joblessness. For example, Oregon’s caseloads were up by 27 percent in May from the previous year. At the same time, the state’s unemployment rate had risen to 12.4 percent. Here in Washington State, TANF caseloads jumped by more than 18 percent between May 2008 and 2009. Unemployment steadily climbed during that time period to 9.4 percent.

Unemployment Rate Understates Problem

The statistic most often used to illustrate weakness in Washington State’s labor market is the unemployment rate, or the share of the labor force that is unsuccessfully looking for work. At the national level, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a more comprehensive measure often called the “underemployment rate.” That measure includes people who have stopped looking for work because they have become discouraged. It also includes people who are working part-time because they can’t find fulltime work. During a recession, the gap between the two rates widens because of the increased difficulty of finding employment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t publish state-level underemployment rates, but a recent post by Joe Turner got me wondering what was happening with underemployment in Washington State. So I dug into the microdata and the results are shown below. (April is the most recent month available.)

When Will the Recession Be Over?

According to the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council, the end of the recession is in sight--as early as later this year. That's good news.

However, the end of the recession only means the economy as a whole will be growing again. It will take some time before the labor market rebounds. According to the Forecast Council, the unemployment rate in Washington will rise through the third quarter of 2010 and then only drop slightly.


The green line below shows one measure of the size of the state economy--personal income (an estimate of the total income received by all Washingtonians from all sources), adjusted for inflation. The purple line shows the projected unemployment rate.

Washington TANF Caseload Increases Match State Forecasts

Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) caseloads have risen sharply in Washington over the last year. Since April 2008, total TANF caseloads in the state went up by 9,000. The increase to over 60,000 cases in April this year can be attributed both to rising numbers of people entering the program and decreasing numbers of people exiting.

Back in November, the Caseload Forecast Council predicted that TANF caseloads would remain under 60,000 through 2011. In March, the Council recalibrated its forecasting to include more recent economic trends and projections such as rising unemployment.

As the graph below depicts, the new forecasting seems to be working. In March, the Council predicted TANF caseloads would be 61,550 in April and the total caseloads were actually 60,809. Currently, the state predicts that TANF caseloads will rise by 13 percent this year and 11 percent in 2010. Caseloads are projected to decrease by less than one percent in 2011.


Washington is applying for the maximum allotment from TANF contingency funds, including funds from the federal stimulus bill to support increasing caseloads and other TANF efforts at the state level. The total amount for fiscal years 2009 and 2010 will be $190 million. All the funds received will be used to backfill rising caseload costs and help preserve basic services.

Note: TANF caseloads are affected by seasonal employment patterns. They tend to rise during the fall and winter and fall during spring and summer.

UPDATE: High Unemployment Across the State

Between March 2008 and March 2009, the state unemployment rate rose from 5.1% to 9.7%. Unemployment rates grew in every metropolitan area of the state as well, as shown by the table below:


UPDATE: I neglected to include the unemployment rate for the Washington side of the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metropolitan area. It went from 6.3 percent in March 2008 to 13.8 percent in March 2009.

March Mass Layoffs Are Worst on Record

In March, there were 2,933 mass layoffs across the country, resulting in close to 300,000 new unemployment insurance (UI) claims. A mass layoff, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is when a single employer lays off 50 or more employees.

The number of mass layoffs and new UI claims were the largest on record; the data go back to 1995. The graph below shows the number of new UI claims due to mass layoffs over the last nine years. The previous peaks were associated with the 2001 recession and terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Microsoft announced today that it will layoff about 1,200 workers in Washington State as part of its plan to eliminate 5,000 jobs this year. To follow that news, click here.

*The data in the graph have been seasonally adjusted, which means that the BLS has accounted for seasonal variations in employment.