New Census Health Insurance Data Likely to Show Declines in Health Coverage throughout Washington State

Tomorrow, the U.S. Census Bureau will release national and state health insurance data for 2007-2008. The data will provide a preliminary glimpse of the impact that the current recession has had on families in Washington and throughout the nation. The data will not however, capture the full impact of the current economic crisis which deepened dramatically in 2009.

The new Census data is expected to show significant increases in the share of the population that is uninsured since the early 2000’s to 2007-2008. The loss of employer-sponsored health insurance is likely to be the dominant driver behind this trend. During the current recession, the economy sunk rapidly in 2009 and many more people lost their jobs and their health insurance. So while tomorrow’s release will signal trouble, next year’s 2008-2009 health coverage data will undoubtedly be far worse.

For example, as the graph below shows here in Washington the unemployment rate jumped from an average of 5.3 percent in 2008 to 9.1 percent by July 2009. Since the start of 2009, over 64,000 jobs have been lost in the state. As a result, next year’s 2008-2009 data will show a large drop in the number of Washingtonians enrolled in employer-sponsored health coverage.

Stay tuned to schmudget tomorrow when the Budget & Policy Center in conjunction with Washington Kids Count will post an analysis of health coverage trends in Washington using the new Census data. Our analysis will highlight changes in the share of the population without health insurance over time and will detail changes in employer-sponsored coverage and public coverage in Washington State.

Editor’s note: Tomorrow’s release will also include updated data on poverty and median income. To obtain state-level estimates of these measures, however, the Census Bureau recommends using data from a different survey, the American Community Survey (ACS). The latest ACS data for 2008 will be released on September 22, 2009. That morning, the Budget & Policy Center and Washington Kids Count will post analysis of the ACS data on poverty, median income, and health coverage in Washington State.

Increased TANF Caseloads Across the Country Linked to Rising Unemployment

Welfare caseloads are on the rise across the country, as they have been here in Washington State. According to a new survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal and the National Conference of State Legislatures, 23 of the 30 largest states in the nation saw caseloads increase over the past year for Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF).

One explanation for the increase in TANF caseloads is the rising unemployment rate. As people’s unemployment benefits run out and the labor market remains constricted, some are turning to welfare as a stopgap until the economy improves.

As the WSJ map below shows, the biggest increases in TANF caseloads are in states with some of the worst joblessness. For example, Oregon’s caseloads were up by 27 percent in May from the previous year. At the same time, the state’s unemployment rate had risen to 12.4 percent. Here in Washington State, TANF caseloads jumped by more than 18 percent between May 2008 and 2009. Unemployment steadily climbed during that time period to 9.4 percent.

March Mass Layoffs Are Worst on Record

In March, there were 2,933 mass layoffs across the country, resulting in close to 300,000 new unemployment insurance (UI) claims. A mass layoff, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is when a single employer lays off 50 or more employees.

The number of mass layoffs and new UI claims were the largest on record; the data go back to 1995. The graph below shows the number of new UI claims due to mass layoffs over the last nine years. The previous peaks were associated with the 2001 recession and terrorist attacks and Hurricane Katrina in 2005.


Microsoft announced today that it will layoff about 1,200 workers in Washington State as part of its plan to eliminate 5,000 jobs this year. To follow that news, click here.

*The data in the graph have been seasonally adjusted, which means that the BLS has accounted for seasonal variations in employment.

Accessing Federal Stimulus Money for Unemployment Insurance

Like many states in the nation, Washington is facing the problem of growing unemployment. Over the next year, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council has projected that the state unemployment rate will rise to ten percent, the highest level since 1983.

As the economy falters, the need for a robust state Unemployment Insurance (UI) program grows. In recognition of this need, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act includes provisions (a.k.a. the UI Modernization Act) to update and improve state UI programs. Here in Washington, the new federal dollars could bring in over $150 million, money that would provide a direct boost to the state economy.

States have to meet certain criteria in their UI policies in order to draw down the extra federal money. Currently, Washington is eligible for one-third of its total allotment. In order to access the rest of the money – nearly $100 million - Washington must make two meaningful improvements to our state policies.

The Legislature is already moving to adopt one reform – allowing unemployment benefits for workers who must leave their job in order to follow a spouse who has obtained new employment. There are two options being considered in the Legislature for the other policy change that would allow us to receive the remaining federal funding. They are:

- Expanding eligibility for people who can only work part-time hours
- Extending benefits to all UI recipients who participate in worker training programs

Part-time
Washington currently allows eligibility for some unemployed workers who are seeking part-time work, but the state’s policies are too restrictive to meet the federal criteria. As it stands, Washington only allows benefits for workers seeking part-time work if they were previously employed for 17 hours or less per week. Laid-off workers that were previously employed for more than 17 hours per week must be available to work full-time hours or lose their UI eligibility.

In order to qualify under the federal criteria, Washington would need to change its part-time eligibility rules to include workers who seek employment of 20 hours per week or more. This change is expected to particularly benefit lower income and women workers.

Worker Training
The extension of UI benefits while recipients are in worker training programs is important because it enables people to develop skills in areas of employment with high demand and it can set them on a path for higher wages in the future. The state has already committed to some policy changes regarding extended benefits for UI recipients in worker training programs. As of September 2009, eligibility will not only include those who work in declining occupations, but also honorably discharged military veterans, people who have been injured and can no longer do their previous work, and lower income workers.

But in order to meet the federal criteria, our program will have to be even more inclusive and easier for UI recipients to navigate. The changes would mean many more unemployed workers would have access to twice the number of weeks of benefits – up to a year as long as they remain in a training program.

"A Shared Vision" Part Four: Economic Security

This post is the final installment in our four-part series on a shared vision for Washington State. The series is based on the Progress Index, a framework for analyzing the state budget that was developed by the Budget & Policy Center. The Progress Index utilizes four commonly-held values: education and opportunity, thriving communities, healthy people and environment, and economic security. Last week, I wrote about healthy people and environment.

State investments in economic security ensure that people can survive difficult financial times and take steps to improve their quality of life. Families succeed when parents are secure in their ability to provide basic necessities for their children. Workers prosper when workplaces are safe and financial protections exist in cases of injury or job loss. And everyone in state benefits when people can meet their basic needs and find meaningful employment.

Even in times of prosperity, we all face the risk of job loss, disability, or family crisis. When the economy is strained, public investments in economic security matter even more. State spending on economic security fell as a share of personal income in each biennium from 1995-97 to 2005-07. Funding increased in the 2007-09 budget due to increased reimbursement rates for child care centers and a new collective agreement with family child care providers. (See graph)


As the unemployment rate rises in Washington State due to the current economic crisis, unemployment insurance benefits play an increasingly important role in shoring up economic security in the state. Two recent stimulus efforts are directed at this benefit: the federal stimulus bill which passed last month, increases the weekly benefit amount by $25 for most claimants. The state also enacted new legislation in February increasing the weekly benefit amount by $45 and raising the weekly minimum amount for many claimants.

The combined impact will be an additional $70 per week for recipients and $480 million of additional money circulating through the state economy. Economists calculate that for every dollar of unemployment insurance issued, there is $1.64 generated in spending.

Safe and affordable housing is also an important component of economic security. Stable housing is a key variable to getting jobs, educational attainment, and health care. Research shows that quick rehousing plus supportive services can have a long-term impact on homelessness. But affordable housing is not readily available to many people living in Washington State: three-fourths of renters with incomes under $35,000 per year were paying more than 30 percent of their income in rent in 2007.

Finally, financial asset development is an important way for people with lower incomes to work towards improving their quality of life. Washington encourages lower income families to build assets through the state's Individual Development Accounts program. IDAs match the savings of lower income families to help build assets that can be used to start a business, buy a home, or pay for college.

But in other instances, the state inadvertently discourages asset building by limiting access to temporary cash benefits (TANF) based on assets the family possesses, such as a retirement account or a car used to commute to work or school. This system works against shared goals. Public programs should help people meet temporary needs without requiring them to deplete modest savings.

This post concludes our series on a shared vision for Washington State. The Budget & Policy Center will continue to use the framework outlined in the Progress Index to evaluate the state budget and analyze our long-term progress toward meeting research-based goals.